![]() And while it would be nice if it were that simple, the correlation between hard contact and run prevention isn’t always as strong as one would think. So, is it as simple as that? Diaz’s stuff hadn’t worsened, but hitters just caught up to him? Not quite. Some more noticeable changes were the sharp increases in Diaz’s Hard Hit %, xwOBAcon, and Barrel %. The only moderately significant difference in Diaz’s stuff from 2018 to 2019 would be a slight dip in his fastball’s vertical movement, but aside from that, his fastball/slider combo remained elite, actually seeing slight increases in both velocity and spin rate. ![]() And, to be fair, he was an easy target - in the offseason the Mets had dealt top prospect Jarred Kelenic to acquire the elite closer, only for him to post results that more closely mirrored that of below-average Pirates righty Clay Holmes (5.58 ERA, 4.97 FIP) rather than a top tier bullpen arm. Not quite as similar this time, as the Yanks’ closer posted results that any reliever would kill for, while a couple boroughs over, Diaz was being thrashed by the New York media night in and night out. ![]() These two relievers had seasons that, based on their peripheral stats, should have netted them similar results, right? Well, let’s take a look: The subjects of the above comparison include the 2018 AL Reliever of the Year, current Mets closer Edwin Diaz (Player A) and the reigning AL Reliever of the Year, Yankees lefty Aroldis Chapman (Player B). See, the stats above ( xFIP, SIERA, DRA) are all predictive stats, or metrics that are designed not to evaluate the results of a pitcher’s performance, but rather to determine the results a pitcher should achieve given his isolated performance. Pretty much a toss up, right? Or at the very least, a case can be made for either pitcher. All images are property the copyright holder and are displayed here for informational purposes only. Many historical player head shots courtesy of David Davis. Some high school data is courtesy David McWater. Some defensive statistics Copyright © Baseball Info Solutions, 2010-2022. Total Zone Rating and initial framework for Wins above Replacement calculations provided by Sean Smith.įull-year historical Major League statistics provided by Pete Palmer and Gary Gillette of Hidden Game Sports. Win Expectancy, Run Expectancy, and Leverage Index calculations provided by Tom Tango of, and co-author of The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball. Much of the play-by-play, game results, and transaction information both shown and used to create certain data sets was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by RetroSheet. Use without license or authorization is expressly prohibited. The SPORTS REFERENCE and STATHEAD trademarks are owned exclusively by Sports Reference LLC. Logos were compiled by the amazing .Ĭopyright © 2000-2022 Sports Reference LLC. Our reasoning for presenting offensive logos. ![]() We present them here for purely educational purposes. All logos are the trademark & property of their owners and not Sports Reference LLC.
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